The “Trăm Tỷ” Fireworks: Strategic Sovereignty and Volatility in the New Vietnamese Cinema (2023 – 2026)

For decades, the Vietnamese box office was a territory defined by the long shadows of Hollywood blockbusters and Korean remakes. As recently as 2022, our domestic industry was a secondary player in its own home; the top-performing local title that year merely managed a sixth-place finish in the overall rankings. The narrative was one of survival, not sovereignty.

Then came 2023 a year I can only describe as a “fireworks show.” It was a sudden, scorching reversal where the local industry didn’t just compete; it dominated. But as a strategist looking toward a 2026 horizon where production volume is slated to exceed 70 films, I must look past the light and smoke. This is an industry that is finally finding its voice, yet remains caught in a high-stakes tug-of-war between domestic commercialism and global artistic identity.

1. The “Trăm Tỷ” Takeover and the Tết King

In 2023, the industry firmly established the “trăm tỷ” (one hundred billion VND) mark as the non-negotiable standard for success. For the first time in modern tracking history, six local films captured over a third of the total box office, while not a single Hollywood IP managed to cross that 100-billion threshold.

The epicenter of this shift is the Tết (Lunar New Year) season the industry’s most “scald-or-succeed” window. Trấn Thành’s Nhà Bà Nữ (The House of No Man) didn’t just win the season; it redefined the speed of success by hitting the trăm tỷ mark in a record 3.5 days, eventually grossing 450 billion VND ($18 million USD). This domestic performance proves that local audiences have shifted their loyalty toward stories that reflect their own nuances rather than imported spectacles.

“For the first time in modern Vietnam cinema since the establishment of its box office tracking, six local films topped the Vietnam box office in 2023 and combined to capture more than a third of the total box office receipts. This dominating performance by local films is a stark reversal of 2022.” – Asian Movie Pulse

2. The Independent Franchise Model

While Western studios lean on serialized continuity, director Lý Hải has pioneered a “Fast and Furious” strategy with a uniquely Vietnamese twist. His Lật Mặt (Face Off) franchise is a masterclass in independent branding. Each installment like the 273-billion VND earner Lật Mặt 6: Tấm Vé Định Mệnh (The Ticket to Destiny) discards character and story continuity entirely.

This strategy allows for constant reinvention. By resetting the narrative while maintaining high-octane production values, Lý Hải avoids the “franchise fatigue” that plagues global sequels. It’s a pragmatic model: the audience isn’t loyal to a character; they are loyal to a director’s “voice” and the guaranteed quality of the brand name.

3. The Paradox of Global Acclaim and “Chèn Ép Suất Chiếu”

There is a bitter irony in our current trajectory: as our art-house films conquer the world, they often freeze at home. Films like Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell (Cannes Caméra d’Or) and Children of the Mist (Oscar shortlist) remain commercially invisible to domestic audiences. Drowsy City (Thành Phố Ngủ Gật), despite its international pedigree, earned a dismal 230 million VND ($9,300 USD).

This disconnect stems from three strategic failures:

• Cinema as Escapism: Many local viewers view theaters purely for “fun”; awards often signal a “burdensome” experience.
• The Oscar Obsession: Local PR firms focus so heavily on the Academy Awards that other major wins carry no domestic currency.
• Crowding Out (Chèn Ép Suất Chiếu): This is the industry’s open secret. Major local blockbusters are frequently accused of monopolizing screen times, effectively starving smaller, critically acclaimed films of any chance to find an audience.

“I wonder what must the global cinematic stage think of Vietnam when approval from the former generates so little in the latter. I also question whether Vietnamese cinema genuinely wants to be embraced by audiences beyond local borders.” – Vibrant or Volatile? Vietnamese Cinema in 2023

4. Folkloric Horror and the Technical Bridge

Horror is our most viable export, but its success depends on more than just “period” aesthetics like those in Quỷ Cẩu (108 billion VND) or The Soul Reaper (Kẻ Ăn Hồn). The real breakthrough is technical: the move from “literalistic” to “cinematic” translation. Historically, poor subtitling forced foreign audiences to “read the film when they should be watching it.” By investing in high-quality, nuanced translation, sales agents like Skyline Media have turned niche folkloric stories into global products available in 36+ territories via Netflix and Apple TV.

We are also seeing the international market act as a commercial safety net. Victor Vũ’s The Last Wife (Người Vợ Cuối Cùng) only reached the coveted trăm tỷ mark after its international release in the U.S. and Australia. Global distribution is no longer a vanity project; it is a strategic necessity for reaching the 100-billion finish line.

5. From Taboos to Commercial Juggernauts

The boundaries of what can be shown are expanding, but the path remains “torturous.” We must distinguish between the artistic pathfinders and the commercial exploiters. In 2019, Kathy Uyen’s Chi Chi Em Em (Sister Sister) was a daring psychological thriller that navigated LGBTQ+ themes and adultery, paving the way through the censorship board.

By 2023, the sequel Sister Sister 2 (directed by Vũ Ngọc Đãng) leveraged that newly opened creative space to become a 121-billion VND commercial juggernaut. This illustrates the “Strategist’s Cycle”: an independent director takes the “torturous” risk of challenging the censors, and once the taboo is broken, the industry follows with a mass-market blockbuster.

6. The 2026 Frontier: Gorgeous but Scalding

As we look toward 2026, the volume is staggering. With over 70 films expected to hit theaters, the production engine is running hot. We are seeing ambitious titles on the horizon like Or Bunny (by Anh Tu), A Room Called Home (by Anh Tu), and A Gift from Heaven (by Thuy Nguyen). The inaugural Ho Chi Minh City International Film Festival further signals our ambition.

However, the “scald” remains. Despite the domestic fireworks, Vietnam still lacks institutional government support for overseas promotion. We are a vibrant scene without a stable framework, relying on private distributors like 3388 Films to act as our sole bridges to the world.

Conclusion: The Dragon’s View

We have entered the Year of the Dragon, a symbol of power and, crucially, an animal said to see into the future. From this “Dragon’s View,” the future of Vietnamese cinema is a question of intent. We have proven we can out-earn Hollywood within our borders, and we have proven we can win at Cannes.

But can we bridge the gap? A sustainable industry cannot exist solely on Tết-season fireworks and isolated art-house wins. To reach 2026 and beyond, we must decide if we are ready to choose stability over volatility. Does the industry genuinely want to be embraced by the world, and are we prepared to build the permanent bridges technical, institutional, and cultural to make that embrace last?